Home › Projections › Gameweek 6FPL gameweek 6: projected points, captains and value
Who the model would captain in gameweek 6, what it expects from every fixture, and where the points per £1m are.
Rebuilt 19 September 2026 at 23:05 UTC .
The deadline is Saturday 10 October, 10:00 UTC .
Palmer is the model's captain pick on 5.90 projected points, 0.17 ahead of B.Fernandes, with a 19% chance of a ten-point haul.
The best points-per-million in the gameweek is Thiaw at £5.0m — 0.94 projected points per £1m.
Gameweek 6 fixtures Home Away Home xG Away xG Chelsea Bournemouth 2.09 1.19 Arsenal Leeds United 1.70 0.71 Manchester United Tottenham Hotspur 1.67 1.08 Aston Villa Brentford 1.43 1.34 Crystal Palace Nottingham Forest 1.42 1.11 Liverpool Manchester City 1.42 1.38 Sunderland Brighton & Hove Albion 1.14 1.33 Ipswich Town Fulham 1.14 1.46 Coventry City Newcastle United 0.97 1.63 Hull City Everton 0.94 1.22
Expected goals for each side, from the model's own team ratings. Captain candidates Player Club Pos Price xPts Ceiling Haul Palmer Chelsea MID £9.7m 5.90 13.6 19% B.Fernandes Manchester United MID £12.0m 5.73 13.6 21% Saka Arsenal MID £9.5m 5.68 13.0 19% João Pedro Chelsea FWD £7.8m 5.23 13.0 16% Haaland Manchester City FWD £15.6m 5.14 10.6 13% Groß Brighton & Hove Albion MID £5.8m 5.05 10.4 15% Gabriel Arsenal DEF £8.0m 4.98 9.5 8% Rogers Chelsea MID £7.7m 4.93 10.4 12% Barnes Newcastle United MID £6.1m 4.80 10.4 11% Tarkowski Everton DEF £6.1m 4.75 9.5 7% Isak Liverpool FWD £9.1m 4.72 10.6 11% Thiaw Newcastle United DEF £5.0m 4.69 9.0 8% Botman Newcastle United DEF £5.0m 4.60 9.5 6% Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest MID £8.0m 4.59 10.4 12% Rice Arsenal MID £7.4m 4.55 9.3 9%
Ranked on expected points. The armband doubles the whole distribution, so the ceiling and the haul chance matter as much as the average. Value by price band The bands are the thirds of this gameweek's own price distribution, so they move with the market rather than with a number written down last August.
Best value £4.6m and under Player Club Pos Price xPts xPts per £1m Konsa Arsenal DEF £4.6m 4.11 0.89 Thomas Coventry City DEF £4.0m 3.32 0.83 Egan Hull City DEF £4.1m 3.39 0.83 Pinnock Coventry City DEF £4.5m 3.63 0.81 Davis Ipswich Town DEF £4.0m 3.20 0.80 Mitchell Crystal Palace DEF £4.5m 3.60 0.80 Tzolakis Hull City GKP £4.6m 3.67 0.80 Mykolenko Everton DEF £4.6m 3.63 0.79
Best value over £4.6m to £5.4m Player Club Pos Price xPts xPts per £1m Thiaw Newcastle United DEF £5.0m 4.69 0.94 Botman Newcastle United DEF £5.0m 4.60 0.92 Khalaili Crystal Palace DEF £5.0m 4.19 0.84 Hall Newcastle United DEF £5.2m 4.32 0.83 Richards Crystal Palace DEF £5.0m 4.02 0.80 Suzuki Aston Villa GKP £5.0m 3.72 0.74 De Cuyper Brighton & Hove Albion DEF £4.9m 3.39 0.69 Canvot Crystal Palace DEF £4.8m 3.28 0.68
Best value over £5.4m Player Club Pos Price xPts xPts per £1m Groß Brighton & Hove Albion MID £5.8m 5.05 0.87 Barry Everton FWD £5.6m 4.46 0.80 Barnes Newcastle United MID £6.1m 4.80 0.79 Tarkowski Everton DEF £6.1m 4.75 0.78 Gonzalo Fulham FWD £6.0m 4.48 0.75 E.Le Fée Sunderland MID £5.7m 4.25 0.74 Buendía Aston Villa MID £5.9m 4.29 0.73 McBurnie Hull City FWD £5.5m 3.96 0.72
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About these figures These figures are produced automatically from our own projection model and rebuilt as new data arrives — team news, results, prices and fixtures. Last rebuilt 19 September 2026 at 23:05 UTC .
These are averages over thousands of simulated gameweeks, not predictions of what will happen: a single week can land a long way from the average, in either direction. The model reads published data only — it has no access to press conferences or leaked team sheets. Graded by walk-forward testing across a completed season, its average error is 1.05 points per player per gameweek over 25,750 graded player-gameweeks. That grading is blind to team news by design: each week is rebuilt from match results alone, so every player in it is scored as though he was fit and available.
The method, and where the model is measurably wrong, are set out in full on how it works .