Brentford FPL projections and fixtures

Projected points, expected minutes and fixture-by-fixture expected goals for the Brentford squad, from gameweek 6 onwards.

Rebuilt .

What the model makes of them

1.35goals scored against an average opponent
1.10goals conceded against an average opponent
8thattack, of 20
13thdefence, of 20

The model rates Brentford's attack 8th of 20 and its defence 13th: against an average opponent it projects 1.35 goals scored and 1.10 conceded.

Across the next 8 fixtures the kindest is Hull City in gameweek 8 (away), where the model has them +0.60 goals better off; the hardest is Arsenal in gameweek 13 at -0.32.

Taken as a run rather than a fixture at a time, that schedule ranks 9th of 20 in the league for attacking upside over the same window.

Thiago is the model's pick of the squad on 36.3 points over the run, 6.5 clear of Schade.

The next fixtures

GameweekOpponentVenueTeam xGOpponent xGDifference
GW6Aston VillaAway1.341.43-0.08
GW7LiverpoolHome1.401.54-0.14
GW8Hull CityAway1.590.99+0.60
GW9Nottingham ForestHome1.631.13+0.50
GW10Brighton & Hove AlbionAway1.311.62-0.31
GW11EvertonHome1.551.02+0.52
GW12Manchester UnitedAway1.321.61-0.29
GW13ArsenalHome1.141.46-0.32
The model's own expected goals for each side of the fixture, not FPL's difficulty colours.

Brentford players, ranked

PlayerPosPricexMinsStartsGW6 xPtsCeilingHaulBlankRun total
ThiagoFWD£7.8m8495%4.4910.610%18%36.3
SchadeMID£6.1m7795%3.678.46%20%29.8
AnthonyMID£5.9m6168%3.208.45%39%25.2
AjerDEF£4.5m7885%2.837.02%59%23.8
KelleherGKP£5.0m8595%2.996.40%48%23.0
Lewis-PotterMID£5.5m7384%2.916.33%26%22.7
M.SangaréMID£5.6m5868%2.736.33%45%21.7
JaneltMID£5.0m7580%2.976.33%34%21.7
KayodeDEF£4.6m8091%2.816.62%66%21.0
DamsgaardMID£5.4m5053%2.365.22%52%18.6
O.DangoMID£6.3m3635%1.825.22%67%15.9
YarmoliukMID£4.8m5156%2.094.21%54%13.7
SchusterDEF£4.5m4945%1.945.61%71%12.9
DioufDEF£4.5m4545%1.605.61%81%11.0
JensenMID£5.4m2114%0.752.10%86%9.7
CollinsDEF£5.4m--0%--------8.8
HickeyDEF£4.5m3840%1.315.60%84%8.6
WilsonFWD£5.4m114%0.631.21%93%6.4
HenryDEF£4.4m2521%0.762.00%92%5.1
Van den BergDEF£4.9m--0%--------4.9
CarvalhoMID£5.0m53%0.301.00%96%3.2
Ji-sooDEF£4.4m77%0.291.00%97%2.5
FredrickDEF£4.0m87%0.321.00%97%2.4
DasilvaMID£4.9m32%0.130.00%98%2.0
NunesMID£4.5m33%0.201.00%98%1.7
ValdimarssonGKP£4.5m33%0.110.00%98%1.7
BalcombeGKP£4.0m22%0.120.00%98%1.4
MilamboMID£5.0m--0%--------1.0
FuroFWD£4.5m--0%--------0.4
Ordered by projected points across gameweeks 6–13. Blank is the chance of two points or fewer.

Plan transfers in the app

More projections

ArsenalAston VillaBournemouthBrighton & Hove AlbionChelseaCoventry CityCrystal PalaceEvertonBest goalkeepersBest defendersBest midfieldersBest forwards

About these figures

These figures are produced automatically from our own projection model and rebuilt as new data arrives — team news, results, prices and fixtures. Last rebuilt .

These are averages over thousands of simulated gameweeks, not predictions of what will happen: a single week can land a long way from the average, in either direction. The model reads published data only — it has no access to press conferences or leaked team sheets. Graded by walk-forward testing across a completed season, its average error is 1.05 points per player per gameweek over 25,750 graded player-gameweeks. That grading is blind to team news by design: each week is rebuilt from match results alone, so every player in it is scored as though he was fit and available.

The method, and where the model is measurably wrong, are set out in full on how it works.